South Africa

You know what I find stunning in SA's electricity crises? The way absolutely no-one is to blame for this problem. No-one. Apparently (according various government officials and Eskom talking heads) the problem a) just blew out of nowhere with virtually no warning or b) is the fault of a number of unlucky coincidences bringing on the current problems. I'm sorry but those excuses are just not good enough. I would like to point this discussion in the direction of an article written by Andrew Kenny on Fin24. Let's start with this quote shall we :

 

THE outstanding feature of the present electricity crisis is that it was so easy to avoid. South Africa has now run out of generating capacity and it was entirely predictable at least ten years ago that it would do so.

 

Yes that's right, no big conspiracies, no fancy coincidences just a lack of poor planning by the powers that be with regard to our electricity consumption. But first a bit of history from Kenny -

 

South Africa nearly ran out of power in the late 1960s when a rapidly growing economy demanded more electricity, and the existing power stations were barely able to supply it. To ensure future supply, Eskom built a series of gigantic coal stations in the Transvaal and Koeberg Nuclear Power Station in the Western Cape. However, because economic growth slowed down dramatically and the lead time for building power stations is so long, South Africa found itself with a large surplus by about 1985. Majuba, whose construction began in 1983, was the last power station to be built in South Africa.

 

So for over twenty years there has been zero construction of new power stations, zero. This was in spite of -

 

In the democratic era, the yearly increase in electricity consumption has averaged just over 3%. A projection in 1994 of this modest [my emphasis] increase would have shown us running out of capacity now, which is exactly what has happened. Our generating capacity is about 36 500 MWe (megawatts electrical). In 2004, peak demand was 34 200. This gives a reserve margin of 6%. A healthy electricity grid has a reserve margin of about 15% to allow for planned maintenance and for unplanned shut-downs, which happen all the time. Both the national generation and transmission systems are now chronically overloaded, so that if a generating unit shuts down it knocks the whole grid and can cause blackouts.

 

So we have known the problems we were faing for awhile and yet the talking heads in the Department of Trade and Industry and Eskom have basically just twiddled their thumbs and waited till the crises became so severe that they would have to do something! So why did this happen -

 

Why did we not build more power stations five years ago when it was perfectly obvious we needed them? The answer is that there was a void in responsibility. Under the new government, Eskom faced the probability of being deregulated, split up and competing with new electricity supply companies. Eskom did not know whether it was in the business of building power stations.

 

Moreover, it was undergoing radical change. Accountants replaced engineers in its leadership, and they wanted a good bottom line now rather than to spend huge sums of money on power stations for the future. Affirmative action and social directives, such as bringing electricity to poor households, diverted attention away from the job of ensuring future power supply. We were lucky to have a mild winter this year and to have some gold mining shafts shut down. This made peak demand for 2005 slightly less than 2004. Even so, we have seen blackouts. A more rapidly growing economy, new industrial projects, cold winters, more use of air-conditioning in summer, more households getting electricity - all of these will aggravate the problem. We need at least 1000 MWe extra capacity every year.

 

So basically we are deep trouble. The government and Eskom's response has been -

 

Eskom plans to build two simple gas turbine plants, one in Mossel Bay, the other in Atlantis, with a combined capacity of 1000 MWe, by the winter of 2007. These are quick to build but very expensive to run, and will only be used at peak times (07:00 to 10:00 and 18:00 to 20:00 on weekdays). Again too little. Programmes to improve energy efficiency and for "Demand Side Management" (shifting load from peak times) will only help to a limited extent.

 

Many of Eskom's industrial customers, such as BHP Billiton, are on interruptible contracts. They can be, and have been, shut down without notice to relieve pressure on the grid. This helps Eskom but does not help South Africa's reputation among potential investors for having reliable electricity. What we really need is to strengthen the transmission system and build more large, baseload stations. The only two local contenders are coal and nuclear. (Wind and solar are good for small applications but hopelessly expensive and unreliable for bulk electricity). We need more of both but such stations take about eight years to build. The nuclear Pebble Bed Modular Reactor (PBMR) will be quicker but must first be proven. In the meantime we are in trouble.

 

Well we can see that the "Demand Side Management" has not worked as has been ably illustrated in the Western Cape in the past week (checkout the happy headline there!). As to PBMR - I think we can safely say that this is a massive gamble by the government after they were caught with their pants down. They need a solution and quick and are hedging their bets in following both PBMR and a more conventional solution.

 

Not good enough gentleman, report to the principal's office for a stern lecture on the importance of planning for the future. You've let us all down.